Trade. Tariffs. The Road Ahead.

As the trilateral trade pact with the U.S., Canada and Mexico comes up for review this year, Automotive News examines how the uncertainty surrounding global trade and tariffs is remaking North American auto production. Over three weeks, Automotive News will publish articles, videos, podcasts and graphics as part of this series. Follow along here.What’s at stake for auto as U.S., Mexico and Canada evaluate free tradeTrump's tariffs aimed to bring auto production home, but structural challenges and pending USMCA changes leave manufacturers frozen.Read moreHow the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement worksThe United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement spells out certain requirements for duty-free trade among the three nations. Here's what the trilateral agreement requires and how President Donald Trump's tariffs have impacted trade in North America.What are the rules of origin?❯ To pass across borders tariff-free, 75 percent of the value of light vehicles and major parts, such as engines and transmissions, must originate in North America. That value stands at 65 percent or 70 percent for other vehicle components.❯ Passenger vehicles also must meet labor value content requirements under USMCA. Forty percent of the value of passenger cars and 45 percent of the value of light trucks must be built by workers earning at least $16 per hour in order to cross borders duty-free.❯ At least 70 percent of the steel and aluminum automakers purchase must be sourced from the U.S., Canada or Mexico to qualify.What tariffs did the U.S. place on Canada and Mexico?❯ The Trump administration in 2025 imposed 25 percent tariffs on imported vehicles and certain auto parts in a bid to encourage manufacturers to move production back to the U.S.❯ The tariffs on Mexico and Canada apply to all imported vehicles that do not comply with the USMCA. USMCA-compliant vehicles are tariffed only on the value of their non-U.S. content. A 25 percent tariff on auto parts only applies to components that do not comply with the USMCA’s rules of origin.Has any tariff relief been enacted for manufacturers?❯ Trump signed executive orders in 2025 that allow partial tariff reimbursement for imported parts used in U.S.-made vehicles.❯ Automakers can apply for a tariff offset equal to 3.75 percent of the aggregate sticker price of vehicles they assemble in the U.S. through April 30, 2030.❯ The 3.75 percent reimbursement rate is equivalent to the duty that would be owed on a vehicle when a 25 percent tariff is applied to parts accounting for 15 percent of its overall value.❯ For North America, that means a U.S.-built vehicle that is USMCA-compliant on 85 percent of its content would not be subject to tariffs while the relief is in place, according to information provided by the Trump administration. Similarly, an automaker that builds a vehicle domestically that complies with the USMCA on just 50 percent of its content will pay tariffs on 35 percent of that value in the first year.❯ Separate 25 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum do not stack on top of the tariffs on Mexico and Canada.Source: Automotive News reportingWhy Canada is seeking a return to normalcy on auto trade amid U.S. ‘violations’ of USMCARead moreMexico’s auto sector faces more than tariffs as China, security complicate USMCA reviewRead moreAutomakers moving vehicle production to the U.S.Automakers are shifting production of key models to avoid high import tariffs from China and Mexico. AutoForecast Solutions forecasts that at least 406,000 vehicles will be built in the U.S. by 2029. Belize Canada Costa Rica Cuba Dominican Republic Guatemala Honduras Haiti Jamaica Mexico Nicaragua Panama El Salvador China USA Bahamas Puerto Rico Line Gray circle Gray circle Gray circle Jeep Cherokee, Compass Chevrolet Blazer Chevrolet Equinox Buick Envision Red circle Red circle Country Name Model Country Moving to 2025imports U.S. production2028 forecast Buick Envision* China Fairfax (Kansas) 168,833 20,000 Chevrolet Blazer Mexico Spring Hill (Tennessee) 40,908 35,000 Chevrolet Equinox Mexico Fairfax (Kansas) 271,900 150,000 Jeep Cherokee Mexico Belvidere (Illinois) Pre-production 10,000 Jeep Compass Mexico Belvidere (Illinois) 117,609 92,000 *Buick said it will build a compact crossover, a successor to the Envision, in Kansas starting in 2028Source: AutoForecast SolutionsCanada has the numbers on its side in USMCA review, but talks likely to stretch past July 1, auto leaders sayRead moreWhat is USMCA? How the North American trade deal governs auto manufacturingRead moreForecasted U.S. production shifts by model Brand Model Plant 2025 U.S.vehicleproduction 2028 U.S.vehicleproductionforecast ChevroletEquinox*Fairfax (Kansas)-150,000ChevroletSilverado+Fort Wayne (Indiana)188,313200,000ChevroletSilverado+Orion (Michigan)-500,000ChevroletSilverado HD+Flint No. 2 (Michigan)127,956147,000GenesisGV60*Savannah/Metaplant (Georgia)-5,000GMCSierra+Fort Wayne (Indiana)133,34690,000GMCSierra+Orion (Michigan)-49,000HondaCivic+^Greensburg (Indiana)55,27858,000HondaCR-V+East Liberty (Ohio)84,379114,000HondaCR-V+Greensburg (Indiana)181,572120,000KiaSportage R*Savannah/Metaplant (Georgia)-97,000KiaSportage R*West Point (Georgia)109,5337,400Mercedes-BenzGLC*Tuscaloosa (Alabama)-50,000NissanRogue^Smyrna (Tennessee)145,187210,000Ram1500+Sterling Heights (Michigan)231,585210,000SubaruCrosstrek^Lafayette (Indiana)97,850100,000SubaruForester^Lafayette (Indiana)38,485200,000ToyotaCorolla^Blue Springs (Mississippi)188,543170,000ToyotaRAV4+^Georgetown 2 (Kentucky)66,66794,500VolvoXC60*Charleston (South Carolina)-30,000*All sales will be from the U.S.+Some production in Canada and/or Mexico^Some production from Japan or specific models sourced from JapanSource: AutoForecast SolutionsThe auto industry is facing trade chaos. Will the USMCA renewal make it worse or better?Read moreAuto tariff calculator: See duties on vehicles, parts by countryRead moreAuto suppliers push for USMCA renewal as tariffs jolt businessRead more“I think everybody, anybody making cars in the U.S. or Canada knows that they need to see an end to these tariffs.”Flavio Volpe, CEO of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers' AssociationWhy dealerships shouldn’t worry as automakers pass on more tariff costsRead moreTariff uncertainty pushes automakers toward supply chain localization and factory automationRead moreAutomotive News video: How dealership service departments, independent repair shops pay the price of tariffsRead more“The level of uncertainty that it's added in capital risk to the industry is almost immeasurable.”Michael Robinet, vice president of forecast strategy at S&P Global MobilityTariff deals with EU, Japan, South Korea loom over North America trade talksRead moreBritish automakers could face U.S. import limit, pay higher tariffs with UK-built Toyota GR CorollaRead moreWhy the North American auto industry is banking on a new Detroit-to-Canada bridge to expedite tradeRead more“Automakers have been absorbing as much of the tariffs as they can, and obviously, that cannot continue.”Jeff Schuster, director of automotive market insights at S&P Global MobilityGordie Howe Bridge could finally ease key trade bottleneck; dealers positive in Q2Read moreWhy automakers are bleeding billions under Trump tariffs — and scrambling for survival strategiesRead more“As the U.S. pulls back from EV production and focuses on internal combustion engine vehicles, we're just going to continue to see a growing gap between what U.S. auto firms are able to do versus what we're seeing competitors do.”Meghan Ostertag, economic policy analyst with the Information Technology and Innovation FoundationU.S. auto industry risks global isolation as tariffs, policy shifts favor domestic marketsRead moreCongress Conversations: Trade, tariffs and the road aheadRead moreCould the USMCA Rewrite North American Auto Trade?Read moreTimelineSince taking office, Trump has implemented a flurry of executive orders on trade that impact the auto industry. Here are some highlights.Source: Automotive News staff reports